What’s happening in Ethiopia?
By AlJazeera
Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is a Nobel Peace Prize winner who now finds himself facing a potential civil war.
The government is fighting opposition forces in Tigray and has closed off the region.
What impact is the battle having on people there?
Why did the fighting start?
And why might Eritrea be drawn in?
Ethiopian Military Has Taken Control of Adigrat Town From Tigray Forces, Gov't Says
By Aleksandra Serebriakova | Sputnik
The fighting in Ethiopia's north erupted in early November, when the federal government accused the ruling party in the rebel Tigray region of attacking a local military base. The government has launched an offensive in the region in response.
The Ethiopian government has taken control of Adigrat, a town located in the Tigray Region, authorities said on Saturday, as quoted by Reuters.
Adigrat lies 116 km north from Mekelle, the capital of Tigray Region, and 898 km north of the nation's capital Addis Ababa. The Ethiopian government is currently pushing its military further into the region to topple rebel forces following an eruption of violence on 4 November.
According to Reuters, it's hard to verify the current positions of the forces, as internet and phone lines have been down since the conflict began.
Ongoing Clashes in Ethiopia
The federal government is accusing the rebel TPLF party (Tigray People's Liberation Front), which maintains de facto control of the region, of attacking a local military base in early November.
Addis Ababa has launched a security operation against the forces, calling the TPLF a "military junta".
According to Ethiopia's Ambassador to Russia Alemayehu Tegenu, the operation has been conducted with "maximum care to protect civilians", in the region, in spite of "fake news and information spread on social media and even in mainstream media" about the conflict.
The official also said that the TPLF was "trying to escape accountability for the genocidal crime it committed both on the Ethiopian National Defence Force and civilians in May Cadera".
Last week, the rebel group has fired rockets into neighboring Eritrea, claiming that its soldiers were deployed and fighting against Tigray forces along the border. The Ethiopian government has also accused Tigray forces of firing rockets at the direction of Bahir Dar and Gondar in Ethiopia's Amhara state.
UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator Mark Lowcock earlier expressed his concerns about humanitarian situation in northern Ethiopia.
"I call for full access to reach people in need wherever they are; safe passage for civilians seeking assistance; and the security of aid workers," the official said in a statement.
Today, November 12, 2013, Adigrat town has been fully liberated from the TPLF militia.
— Ethiopia State of Emergency Fact Check (@SOEFactCheck) November 21, 2020
National Defence Forces are currently advancing towards Mekelle.
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Ethiopia military: we will use tanks, artillery to capture city of Mekelle
By Reuters
The Ethiopian military plans to use tanks to encircle Mekelle, the capital of northern Tigray region, and is warning civilians it may also use artillery on the city, state media reported on Sunday.
“The next phases are the decisive part of the operation, which is to encircle Mekelle using tanks, finishing the battle on mountainous areas and advancing to the fields,” Colonel Dejene Tsegaye, a military spokesman, told the state-run Ethiopia Broadcasting Corporation.
The conflict erupted on Nov. 4 after what the government described as a surprise attack on federal troops by forces from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the political party that controls Tigray.
Information on the fighting is extremely patchy and claims by all sides are hard to verify because phone and internet communication to the region has been down since the conflict began.
Both sides say federal forces have taken Adigrat, 116 kilometres (72 miles) north of Mekelle.
Dejene said civilians in Mekelle, which has a population of half a million, should be aware of the danger.
“So far, we were only attacking targets which the junta fighters were stationed but in the case of Mekelle it might be different,” he said, referring to the TPLF.
“We want to send a message to the public in Mekelle to save themselves from any artillery attacks and free themselves from the junta. The junta is now shielding itself within the public and the public must isolate itself from the junta.”
“After that, there will no mercy.”
TPLF forces were not immediately available for comment.
Defence Army Takes Control Of Idaga Hamus Town En Route To Mekele
By FanaBC
The National Defence Force has today taken control of Idaga Hamus en route to Mekele from Adigrat today.
The National Defence Force has been heading to Mekele, the final destination as per the law enforcement operation against the TPLF Junta.
It is to be recalled that The National Defence Army has already liberated Shire, Axum, Adwa and Adigrat towns from the TPLF Junta special force and militia.
Ethiopia has been undertaking law enforcement operation against the renegade TPLF Junta which attacked the Northern Command of the Nationl Defence Force two weeks ago in a bid to ensure law and order and bring perpetrators to justice.
Ethiopia says Tigray capital encircled after surrender ultimatum
By Reuters
Ethiopian federal forces were encircling the Tigray region’s capital from around 50 km (31 miles) on Monday, the government said, after giving the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) a 72-hour surrender ultimatum.
“The beginning of the end is within reach,” said government spokesman Redwan Hussein of the nearly three-week offensive that has destabilised both Ethiopia and the wider Horn of Africa.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has told the TPLF, which had been ruling the mountainous northern zone of 5 million people, to lay down arms by Wednesday or face a final assault on Mekelle.
TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael told Reuters that threat was a cover for government forces to regroup after what he described as defeats on three fronts.
Reuters could not verify the latest statements.
Claims by all sides are hard to verify because phone and internet communication has been down.
Hundreds, possibly thousands, have been killed in fighting and air strikes that erupted on Nov. 4, sending about 40,000 refugees into neighbouring Sudan. The conflict has spread beyond Tigray, with the TPLF firing rockets into both neighbouring Amhara region and across the border to Eritrea.
Redwan told Reuters by text that federal forces were ringing Mekelle at a distance of about 50 km (30 miles).
Tigrayan forces fired rockets on Monday at Bahir Dar, the capital of neighbouring Amhara region whose authorities are supporting the federal offensive, he also said.
“So far, I didn’t hear of any casualties,” said a hotel receptionist in the lakeside city where residents reported a pre-dawn rocket attack. “I guess now we are accustomed to it and there wasn’t much panic.”
ANCIENT AXUM
TPLF troops had also destroyed the airport at the ancient town of Axum, a popular tourist draw and UNESCO World Heritage site which lies northwest of Mekelle, Redwan said.
Axum’s history and ruins, including fourth century obelisks when the Axumite Empire was at its height, gives Ethiopia its claim to be one of the world’s oldest centres of Christianity.
Legend says it was once home to the Queen of Sheba and Ethiopians believe a church there houses the Ark of the Covenant.
The TPLF says Abiy has “invaded” their region to dominate them and is inflicting “merciless” damage on Tigrayans.
“We are people of principle and are ready to die in defence of our right to administer our region,” TPLF leader Debretsion added in a text message to Reuters. Debretsion was a signals and intelligence officer for the TPLF during their war against the Communist Derg dictatorship in the 1980s and later earned a degree in electronic engineering from Addis Ababa University.
He rose to the rank of deputy prime minister in the Ethiopian government when it was dominated by the TPLF.
The TPLF accuses accuse Abiy, a former military comrade and partner in government, of marginalising their ethnic group since becoming prime minister two years ago. He has removed Tigrayan officials from influential roles in government and the military and detained some on rights abuse and corruption charges.
Abiy, whose parents are from the larger Oromo and Amhara groups, denies any ethnic undertones, saying he is legitimately pursuing criminals and preserving national unity.
The African Union (AU) has appointed three envoys to try and start mediation talks over Tigray. Redwan said Abiy would meet them and all options were on the table except negotiating with the TPLF “gang”.
The United Nations’ humanitarian coordinator for Ethiopia, Catherine Sozi, urged safety guarantees for aid workers, Mekelle’s more than half a million inhabitants, and their health, school and water systems.
The leaders of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front are seeking to manipulate the international community into backing a power-sharing deal that grants it impunity for past crimes and gives it far more future influence over the country than it deserves.
Ethiopia’s Government and the TPLF Leadership Are Not Morally Equivalent
By Hailemariam Desalegn | ForeignPolicy
Most Ethiopia analysts or so-called experts on the Horn of Africa are busy these days preaching the need for an all-inclusive national dialogue. They’re also calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities in the conflict between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
These seemingly benign calls are at face value noble and well-meaning. After all, calling for negotiated peace has become the textbook proposal for resolving conflicts, wherever they arise. I truly believe that most people recommending this approach are well-intentioned outsiders who are merely echoing the conventional wisdom of how one should resolve conflicts in Africa.
The problem is that such blanket propositions often don’t work. Indeed, Ethiopia’s neighbor South Sudan is a case in point; it is the archetypal example of how such situations tend to be viewed and handled by the international community. When armed conflict within the ruling party of South Sudan broke out after independence, the peace dialogue that followed resulted solely in a power-sharing arrangement, neglecting proper accountability for the mass killings that had occurred.
The key problem in the international community’s initial approach to South Sudan—and now to Ethiopia, which I led as prime minister from 2012 to 2018—is the assumption of moral equivalence, which leads foreign governments to adopt an attitude of false balance and bothsidesism. Facts and details regarding the true nature of conflicts and the forces igniting and driving them are frequently lost in international efforts to broker peace deals that often crumble as soon as they have been signed.
I confess, a TPLF-dominated coalition ruled Ethiopia shrewdly for 27 years. After being forced to give up the reins of power due to popular protests against our economic and political mismanagement—which I was a part of—the TPLF leadership designed and is now executing a strategy meant to capitalize on the propensity of the international community to fall into its default mode of bothsidesism and calls for a negotiated settlement. The TPLF’s leaders are savvy operators who know how susceptible the international community is to such manipulation.
One major component of this formula was to trigger an armed confrontation with the federal government so that the TPLF’s current leaders would be able to secure immunity for their past and present misdeeds and a power-sharing scheme through an internationally brokered deal. Such an agreement would enable the TPLF leadership to exercise influence that exceeds the limited support it enjoys in a country with a population of 110 million. This strategy is contingent upon three premises.
The first premise is the tendency of the international community to ignore complex political and moral realities and call for superficial dialogues that will invariably end up in power-sharing agreements in which rogue actors are rewarded for instigating violence.
The second premise for this strategy is the belief within the TPLF leadership, very often reinforced by the opinion of external analysts and so-called experts, that it is an invincible force that could withstand or even defeat the Ethiopian National Defense Force, as if other Ethiopians are inferior to its members. The fact is all Ethiopians are battle-hardened, not just those in the TPLF. The conventional wisdom is that the TPLF leadership could ensure that any military confrontation with the federal government will be a long, drawn-out, and protracted affair. The TPLF leadership and its army are actually locked in from all sides and will have limited capacity to resist the national army. This borderline-mythical sense that the TPLF leadership is invincible only reinforces its brinkmanship and deadly provocations.
The third factor behind the TPLF leadership’s arrogance is its assumption that, due to the seeds of discord and division it has been sowing within the Ethiopian body politic and the army for decades, it could easily prevail in an armed confrontation against the federal government. Prompted by such miscalculation, the party has now triggered an armed confrontation with the federal government.
The TPLF leadership’s illusions about its invincibility and military prowess are now being dispelled rather quickly. The group’s despicable acts against the Northern Command—attacking its bases and seizing military equipment while allegedly ethnically profiling non-Tigrayan members of the national army and committing heinous acts against them—have strengthened the resolve of the federal government and many Ethiopians to bring criminal elements within the TPLF to justice.
The only thing going according to plan for the TPLF leadership seems to be the chorus of international personalities and actors calling for a dialogue between the federal government and TPLF leaders. As well-meaning as many of the voices calling for negotiations are, they also seem to ignore the Machiavellian and deadly machinations of the remnants of the old TPLF regime and are shying away from blaming them for destabilizing the country.
If the TPLF leadership is guaranteed the impunity it desires through an internationally brokered deal, the cause for justice and sustainable peace will be severely harmed. Above all, it creates a precedent for other groupings within the Ethiopian federation to learn the wrong lesson: that violence pays off.
The federal government’s military operations should be completed as quickly as possible and in a manner that minimizes the humanitarian cost of the campaign and brings TPLF leaders to justice while protecting civilians. In the meantime, those who are advocating dialogue with the TPLF leadership should carefully consider the full implications of what they are calling for, as they will be opening a Pandora’s box that other ethnic-based groupings are ready to emulate. Those calling for talks should understand that the very prospect of negotiating with the TPLF’s current leadership is an error—as a matter of both principle and prudence.
In the past few days, the true nature of the TPLF leadership has become clear. A senior spokesperson has publicly admitted that the leadership planned and executed an attack against the Northern Command, massacring those members of the army who resisted, in what he referred to as “anticipatory self-defense.” The alleged heinous crimes the TPLF leadership has committed against civilian populations in places like Mai-Kadra—which have been reported by Amnesty International and should be verified by an independent body—would, if confirmed, demonstrate its genocidal desperation.
The rocket strike against the Eritrean capital, Asmara—carried out in a last-ditch attempt to internationalize the conflict—also shows that the TPLF leadership is a threat to the peace and security of the broader region.
Ethiopians should not be expected to embrace such a sinister and dangerous party in the guise of a so-called all-inclusive dialogue. The TPLF leadership, as it stands, is nothing more than a criminal enterprise that should not be included in any dialogue meant to chart the future of Ethiopia. Peace-loving members of the TPLF party and the people of the Tigray region at large, along with other Ethiopians, are the true owners of a democratic Ethiopia.
For its part, the federal government must seek to avoid any civilian casualties and protect all civilians affected by the current conflict. Access to humanitarian assistance must be allowed in Tigray. There are also allegations of ethnic profiling of Tigrayans in some corners of federal government entities, and the administration of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed should investigate these charges as quickly as possible. If verified, this is a dangerous development and should be condemned in no uncertain terms, and the perpetrators should be brought to justice.
Ethiopia should be a place where the constitution and the rule of law prevail so democratization can progress rather than letting our beloved country slide into chaos.
Eritrea – on unique and challenging path to political and economic emancipation
By Kidane Eyob
In 2018, the courageous and visionary Prime Minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, Dr Abiy Ahmed came to power following the popular uprising and declared that Ethiopia accepts the final and binding verdict of the Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission (EEBC) and publicly called for peace with Eritrea. The Eritrean president, Isaias Afeworki reciprocated by accepting the call for peace bringing an end to the 18 years of ‘no war no peace’ stalemate. Weeks later, the two leaders signed the seven-points peace agreement in July 2018 and formalised the peace accord. Soon, diplomatic relations were re-established, flights between the two countries resumed and telephone lines were reconnected and the required legal and ground work is being carried out for trade between the two countries to resume. Eritrea and Ethiopia can now focus on nation building and economic integration of the Horn of Africa for the benefit of the peoples of the region. With the establishment of the transitional government in Sudan and the wind of peace blowing in Somalia and South Sudan, the future of the Horn of Africa looks very promising.
At the time Eritrea achieved its independence, almost 30 years ago, most African countries were plagued by poverty, diseases, ignorance, corruption and conflict in spite of their rich human and natural resources. The root cause to this tragedy was attributed to the political, economic and social policies and programmes prescribed by the West and their financial organisations such as the IMF and the World Bank. These policies and programmes had miserably failed to bring the desired development and social justice. After nearly 60 years of independence, most African countries are still in a similar state of despair, in fact others are worse off now than they were at the time they gained their independence.
The Eritrean government was determined not to make the same mistakes and decided to pursue ‘homemade’ and independent political, economic and social policies and programmes that were developed during the 30 years of armed struggle for independence. At the heart of these policies and programmes are the pursuit of ‘self-reliance’, ‘unity in diversity’, ‘food security’ and the promotion of ‘social justice’. The Eritrean government pursued these policies at the risk of facing the ‘carrot and stick’ consequences if they fail to follow orders from the West and their financial organisations.
The ‘carrot’ usually comes with strings attached and is in the form of food and financial aid that decapacitates the local agricultural and manufacturing industries. Additionally, there are loans with extortionate interest rates that African countries can’t afford to pay back and consequently remain hooked indefinitely like drug addicts. African leaders are also bribed, corrupted and then blackmailed into serving the interest of the West and their corporate organisations.
The ‘stick’ also comes in many forms and the Eritrean government has been on the receiving end of this ‘stick’ which included but is not limited to intimidation, diplomatic isolation, economic sabotage and politically motivated unjust UN sanctions using fabricated accusations that the Eritrean government supports Al-Shabab terrorists in Somalia. Surprisingly, even a German bank pooled out from a lucrative business, on the last hour, after agreeing to give loans to a Canadian mining company, Nevsun Resources Ltd so as to sabotage the first gold mine in Eritrea at Bisha. However, in spite of this hurdle and using revenue generated from shares in the international market, the Bisha gold mine commenced production in February 2011 as planned.
Furthermore, there was a well-coordinated and systematic human trafficking crimes committed to drain Eritrea’s human resources, particularly the youth. EU countries were suddenly giving Eritrean youth asylum and full refugee status almost automatically luring tens of thousands of Eritrean youth to leave their country in search of better life in the West. Sadly, thousands of them perished crossing the desert to Libya and the Mediterranean Sea. The corporate media also played a pivotal role in portraying Eritrea as ‘hell on earth’ in fact, some went as far as labelling Eritrea as the ‘North Korea of Africa’. Even though Ethiopia belatedly accepted the final and binding verdict of the EEBC, Eritrea’s territories still remain occupied because of TPLF's intransigence and lawlessness in Ethiopia. The so called ‘experts on Eritrea’ usually, Western academics, journalists and diplomats, predicted that Eritrea will be ‘a failed state’ on several occasions over the last 20 years using the corporate media’s platform but to their dismay, Eritrea came out victorious frustrating their resources and undermining their false prophesy.
Against all the odds, Eritrea continued to exist as a viable and independent country in a volatile region both economically and politically and was even able to meet most of the Millennium Development Goals ahead of time. The various developments achieved by Eritrea in the construction of vital infrastructures in agriculture, education, health, transport, fisheries and mining using its own human resources have become a good example to the rest of Africa. To promote equality in diversity, equal opportunities and social justice, health care and education (from primary to university level as well as vocational and technical training) is free of charge in Eritrea.
In the last 20 years, some economically influential countries as well as multinational organisations have defied the advice given by the West ‘not to engage with the Eritrean government’ for allegedly non-existent security reasons. These countries and organisations have, after careful consideration and professional assessment of the realities on the ground, decided to reject this inaccurate Western diplomatic advice ‘not to engage with the Eritrean government’ and invested in Eritrea in partnership with the Eritrean government. In a matter of few years these countries, organisations and the Eritrean people had become the main beneficiaries of the abundant natural resources in Eritrea and for the first time in the history of Africa, the Eritrean government was in a 40:60 joint-venture deal in the first gold mine at Bisha with a Canadian mining company, Nevsun Resources Ltd (60%). Sadly, some African countries only get 2% to 10% share from their mines while the foreign investors syphon over 90% of the revenue out of Africa and into the West.
These foreign investors in Eritrea, were not disappointed and they loved their stay in Eritrea because Eritrea is very peaceful, free from corruption, no ethnic and religious conflict despite the fact that the population is 50% Christians and 50% Muslims.
In 2021 the Colluli Potash mine will start production, this deposit happens to be the largest Sulphate of Potash (SOP) in the world and is 200 years’ worth of potash. Based in Australia, Colluli Mining Share Company (CMSC) is in a 50:50 joint-venture with the Eritrean government. In the near future, other African countries will also realise that they too can achieve what Eritrea has, political and economic independence, food security and the promotion of social justice.
Historical account
Eritrea is in fact roughly the size of England, has a population of about 5 million and is located in the volatile Eastern part of Africa, also known as the Horn of Africa. Eritrea has around 1200km of Red Sea coast, about 350 islands and shares borders with landlocked and second populous country in Africa, Ethiopia (110 million), the Sudan (45 million) and Djibouti. On the other side of the narrow Red Sea, lies Yemen and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabiya. This makes Eritrea one of the most geographically strategic countries in the world as the Red sea is a very busy passage of commercial ships carrying oil and other commodities to and from the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea.
During the scramble of Africa, Italy colonised Eritrea, Somalia and Libya and declared that Eritrea is its colony in 1890. The Italian colonial policy was different to that of the British and the French. The Italians established an apartheid system of segregation and arrogantly believed that Eritrea was another Italy abroad and built first class infrastructures and established modern irrigation system of agriculture and manufacturing industries. The capital, Asmara, the Italians called ‘Piccolo Roma’ (little Rome) has one of the biggest concentrations of art deco buildings of 1930s in the world, in fact in 2017, the city was declared as a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
During the Second World War, Italy allied itself with Germany and as part of this war, the British Army in Africa, fought and kicked out the Italians out of Eritrea, Somalia and Libya and Eritrea remained under British Military Administration for ten years from 1941 to 1951. During this decade, the British are remembered by Eritreans for looting almost everything the Italians built including port machinery, factories, warehouses and cable wire transport system that transported goods from the port, Massawa to Asmara (120km). This looting was partly documented by a British Historian Sylvia Pankhurst and was assessed to be several tens of millions of pounds at the time. The worst crime the British government committed against Eritreans, however, was when they conspired with the US government to deny Eritreans their right to self-determination and manipulated the UN to federate Eritrea with its giant neighbour Ethiopia against the wishes of the Eritrean people. Note, Ethiopia was not colonised by Europeans, hence did not benefit from the industrialisation and infrastructural developments as Eritrea and other colonies did.
While the Europeans were exploiting the natural resources of their colonies in Africa, the US had none. Soon, some of the US oil companies realised that Ethiopia was not being exploited by any European country as it was not colonised and took advantage of the vacuum and an insecure but cunning Emperor Haile Selassie who also had his own sinister motives of illegally gaining access to the Red Sea for landlocked Ethiopia. The US government and the Emperor were partners in crime and the British were willing to facilitate this on the ground in Eritrea. In fact, it is believed that one of the main reasons the British looted Eritrea’s infrastructure and factories was to mislead the UN that Eritrea cannot exist as an economically viable country in Africa, therefore, Eritrea had to be federated with their ally Ethiopia. The other reason was to benefit from the revenue they generated after selling the machinery they looted to their other colonies including Yemen, Kenya and Pakistan.
In 1952 the US Ambassador to the UN John Foster Dulles made the following statement to justify their crimes against the Eritrean people:
‘’From the point of justice, the opinion of the Eritrean people must receive consideration. Nevertheless, the strategic interest of the United States in the Red Sea basin and considerations of security and world peace make it necessary that the country [Eritrea] has to be linked with our ally, Ethiopia’’.
In 1943 the United States Army established their military base known as Kagnew Station in Asmara. Asmara has a very high altitude, around 2,325 metres (7,628 feet) above sea level and this helped the US intelligence to intercept the Soviet Union analogue communication system during the Cold War. Interestingly and by coincidence Ambassador John Foster Dulles died on 24th of May, the day Eritreans celebrate their independence day.
Ten years of British Military Administration was soon followed by ten years of federation with Ethiopia from 1952 to 1962. During the Federation period, Eritrea had an elected parliament, multiparty democracy, the first Trade Union in Africa and free press. On the other hand, Ethiopia was in its feudal state of governance and this forced marriage between these two neighbourly countries was not compatible to say the least and was doomed to fail from the outset. The cunning Emperor soon started to interfere in the internal affairs of Eritrea and used intimidation, coercion, religion and at times assassinations to silence and kill Eritrean activists and politicians until he finally and unilaterally annex Eritrea by abolishing the parliament, banning political parties and free press and made Eritrea the 14th province of Ethiopia in November 1962. When all these crimes were taking place the international community and the UN watched in silence and to the contrary the US financially and materially supported the Emperor.
In the early 1960s, the Pan Africanist leaders had split into two main groups, one led by Kwame Nkrumah of Ghana and the other by Jemal Abdunnasir of Egypt. The cunning Emperor Haile Selassie volunteered to be the respected elder and peacemaker and invited the two groups to Addis Ababa for talks and gradually Addis Ababa became the Headquarters of the Organisation of African Unity (OAU). One of the founding pillars of the OAU that was agreed during these discussions was that ‘African countries must honour the boundaries as demarcated by their European colonisers’. The second was ‘non interreference in the internal affairs of a member country’. Once the cunning Emperor learnt these pillars of the organisation, he decided to annex Eritrea and force Eritrea to be part of Ethiopia in November 1962 before the OAU was formally established on 25 May 1963 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, with 32 signatory governments.
In 1940s and 1950s the Eritrean people pursued peaceful struggle to achieve their right to self determination but this failed to bring the desired freedom. Eritreans lost hope in the peaceful struggle and on the 1st of September 1961, shot the first bullets to start the armed struggle against Ethiopian military occupation, the biggest army in Sub-Sahara Africa. This was to become the longest war in Africa and dragged on for 30 bloody years until Eritreans won the war against all the odds and achieved their independence on 24th May 1991. Over 65000 Eritrean men and women were martyred and tens of thousands disabled during this protracted and bloody war. To give this freedom a legal conclusion, Eritreans conducted a UN supervised referendum in April 1993 when 99.8% chose independence. Eritrea declared its independence and the international community reciprocated by recognised Eritrea’s independence.
During these 30 bloody years, the OAU was silent because they considered the conflict to be an internal affair of Ethiopia exactly as the cunning Emperor had planned. The West and their organisations were supporting successive Ethiopian governments both militarily and financially but ignored Eritreans’ right to self-determination. Although its African and Eritrean tradition to be self-reliant, it was during these desperate 30 bloody years for independence that the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF) developed these virtues of self-reliance and independent political and economic policies as well as unity in diversity, the promotion of social justice and equality between men and women.
30% of the EPLF freedom fighters were women, perhaps the only women in the world who gained equal status as men when they fought and paid the ultimate price for freedom side-by-side with their men comrades. Indeed, it was these virtues and policies that helped the EPLF gain overwhelming support from the Eritrean people inside the country and abroad and finally the EPLF delivered independence.
From the outset, the Eritrean government had a clear vision and pragmatic short- and long-term programmes that wholly relied on its human resources. To facilitate this, Eritrea introduced mandatory National Service for all men and women after the age of 18 in 1994. Every year about 20,000 men and women from all over the country go to the training centre known as Sawa for academic, social, political, technical and military training where the youth get the kind of theoretical and practical educations that revolutionises the hearts and minds of the youth and so far 33 batches of young men and women have successfully completed their training. Sawa has become a melting pot for the Eritrean youth promoting ‘unity in diversity’ as well as developing confident, patriotic, selfless, disciplined and industrious youth who are playing pivotal role in defending the sovereignty of Eritrea and the construction of vital infrastructures such as roads, dams, schools, hospitals and solar power stations all over the country.
In 1997, the federal state of Tigray introduced a new map depicting its boundaries with other federal states in Ethiopia. Also, contrary to the Ethiopian constitution, it made illegal changes to the international boundaries with Eritrea by including huge portions of Eritrean land inside Tigray federal state. The redrawing of the boundaries was part of the jigsaw for the establishment of the Republic of Tigray. The regime in Ethiopia that was dominated by the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) had also drafted the Ethiopian constitution and inserted Article 39 to facilitate the legal secession of the Republic of Tigray with huge fertile land it grabbed from the neighbouring federal states and Eritrea. A year later and seven years after independence, Eritrea was dragged into a ‘border war’ with the TPLF regime in Ethiopia led by the late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi.
This regime was a client state of the US and had been given two missions to deliver, to bring a regime change in Eritrea and Somalia. After Eritrea foiled three rounds of first world war style of human waves of attacks by the regime’s army between 1998 and 2000, the two countries finally went to the Hague for a final and binding legal verdict to bring a legal conclusion to the conflict. During this war nearly 20,000 Eritrean men and women were martyred defending the sovereignty of Eritrea and over 100,000 Ethiopian men were killed invading Eritrea so as to bring a regime change. To add insult to injury, the TPLF regime deported more than 80,000 Eritreans and Ethiopians of Eritrean origin from Ethiopia and confiscated their properties and businesses committing ethnic cleansing crime against humanity.
In April 2002, the border commission in the Hague delivered its final and binding verdict but the TPLF regime rejected the verdict as a tactical method to maintain a ‘no war no peace’ stalemate situation so as to weaken the Eritrean government and eventually bring about a regime change. This tactical method was coupled with UN Sanctions, diplomatic isolation and systematic and well-coordinated human trafficking to drain Eritrea’s human resources. Ironically, these tactics employed by the TPLF regime backfired and a popular uprising by Ethiopian youth brought about a regime change in Addis Ababa 2018.
Repeated efforts to bring about regime change in Eritrea failed miserably and frustrated those who engineered and plotted these conspiracies. The ‘border war’ failed to deliver the desired ‘regime change’ in Eritrea and plan B had to be initiated. Plan B was to place politically motivated sanctions on Eritrea using fabricated accusations that the Eritrean government supports Al-Shabab terrorists in Somalia.
On the 8th October 2009, the UK Ambassador to the UN John Sawers, called for sanctions to be applied against Eritrea for unsubstantiated and unfounded allegations that Eritrea supplies weapons to Al-Shabab terrorists in Somalia in violation of a U.N. arms embargo. In his speech, Ambassador John Sawers made references to the evidences fabricated by the UN Monitoring Unit that was established by the Bush Administration diplomat, Dr Jendayie Frazer. First and foremost, the evidences referred to had neither been independently verified nor presented to the international community for reasons that were not disclosed at the time, however, some of the accusations include but are not limited to the allegations that Eritrea had 2000 soldiers in Somalia supporting the Al Shabab terrorists. These allegations were proved to be fabricated beyond any doubt. This is very similar to the Weapons of Mass Distraction (WMD) fiasco, that Iraq had the capability of attacking Britain within 45 minutes. We all know the real reason why US and UK attacked Iraq.
On Christmas Eve of 2009 the US Ambassador to the UN, Dr Susan Rice delivered the UNSC Resolution 1907 to place sanctions on Eritrea. Subsequently, and to add insult to injury and weeks before Christmas 2011, the UNSC Resolution 2023 were declared renewing the sanctions placed on Eritrea. Here is a link to the open letter I wrote to Dr Susan Rice at the time.
The efforts and sacrifices of the Eritrean people in the last 20 years in overcoming the challenges posed by the unjust UN sanctions and the coordinated psychological warfare is incredible. Eritreans both inside the country and in Diaspora stood in unison for the final and binding verdict to be implemented, for the unjust UN sanctions to be lifted and for rule of law to prevail in the region. Therefore, it would not be an exaggeration to state that all of the aforementioned victories and achievements were made possible because the Eritrean people are the most united, resilient, patriotic, selfless and politically conscious people in the whole wide world. And, either by coincidence or divine intervention, it has taken the Eritrean people 30 years of armed struggle to achieve their independence against all the odds and another 30 years of resilience and sacrifices to defend their sovereignty and gain political and economic emancipation.
Rise and fall of Ethiopia’s TPLF – from rebels to rulers and back
By Jason Burke | TheGuardian
In the centre of Mekelle, the highland capital of Tigray, is a complex of memorials and museums. Under the hot sun, old armoured vehicles, jets and helicopters rust quietly. On the city’s wide avenues, statues commemorate the “martyrs” and the victories of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a small band of insurgents who became a guerrilla army, launched a successful rebellion and eventually ruled Africa’s second most populous country for almost 30 years.
This week federal Ethiopian forces have closed in on Mekelle in the final stages of a bloody offensive launched earlier this month by Ethiopia’s prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, with the aim of eliminating the TPLF as a political force.
The TPLF’s rise took 16 years, and its dominance of Ethiopian politics lasted nearly twice as long, but if Abiy’s “law enforcement operation” is successful, its fall will have taken less than 30 months. “It is really shocking. The decline is very dramatic,” said Yohannes Woldemariam, a US-based academic specialising in the Horn of Africa.
The TPLF was formed in 1975 at a time when hundreds of millions of people across Africa and the Middle East were demanding revolutions and liberation. Among those in Ethiopia calling for both were a dozen young men from the mountainous northern region of Tigray. Inspired by Marxist-Leninism, a profound sense of national identity, and the utopian slogans of the time, they imagined a brave new world for their country.
Only a year earlier, Haile Selassie, the last emperor of Ethiopia, had been deposed and murdered by hardline Marxist army officers, who immediately set about imposing a harsh authoritarian rule. In Tigray, there had long been resentment at the power of the centralised Ethiopian state. Many remembered the Tigrayan armed revolt of 1943, which had been brutally put down. This time, the TPLF leaders vowed, they would triumph.
Through the late 1970s the TPLF grew steadily. By 1978 the party had around 2,000 fighters, according to CIA estimates at the time. Two years later it could mobilise twice as many, the agency said.
Among them was Debretsion Gebremichael, who was then a wireless operator and propagandist for the insurgents and is now the group’s leader.
The TPLF’s success owed nothing to chance. Its leaders were ruthless and canny. They fought and destroyed rival rebel groups in Tigray and were careful to downplay their own Marxist views, which would be unpopular with the conservative, devoutly Christian rural populations that made up the TPLF’s initial support base. Instead, they emphasised the threat posed to local traditions and regional autonomy by the socialist policies of the regime in Addis Ababa.
An alliance with like-minded leftist nationalist rebels from the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF) in the neighbouring province brought the organisation critical training and experience, which allowed it to resist the massive firepower of the Soviet-backed government regime.
“Ethiopian large-scale military operations to crush [the insurgency] have failed, with heavy losses of men and equipment,” noted the CIA in a 1983 assessment. “The government has paid a high political and economic price.”
But the suffering in Tigray was immense, with blunt and brutal counter-insurgency campaigns playing a significant role in the appalling famine of 1984. The TV reports that prompted global concern and the Live Aid concerts were filmed in Mekelle.
By the end of the 1980s, the TPLF was by far the biggest and most effective among the coalition of Ethiopian armed rebel groups that had united under the banner of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) to fight the ailing Ethiopian regime. On 28 May 1991, TPLF troops backed by Eritrean forces seized control of Addis Ababa, the capital.
The fall of the regime left the TPLF’s leader, 36-year-old Meles Zenawi, in power and the army and intelligence services dominated by Tigrayans, who moved swiftly to consolidate their control in other sectors. Jobs were found for former comrades. Debretsion, the one-time wireless operator and by now a veteran close to Zenawi, was made the deputy head of the national intelligence agency, and later the minister of communications and information technology.
Debretsion’s career spans the two sides of Ethiopia under the TPLF-dominated coalition government from 1991. There was the construction of a carefully balanced ethnicity-based federal state, rapid development progress, massive infrastructure investment and stunning economic success, which has come close to banishing the hunger that once made the country infamous.
Mekelle thrived, its neat streets and electricity lines testament to the resources channelled to the TPLF’s stronghold.
But there was also repression so remorseless that it worried even the US, which saw Ethiopia as the cornerstone of its security strategy in the region and was prepared to tolerate most of the excesses of the TPLF leadership.
Meles died suddenly in 2012, and his handpicked successor, Halemariam Desalegn, proved too weak to manage growing tensions.
Discontent, especially among the two largest ethnic groups – the Oromo and Amhara – threatened the delicate compromise of the 1994 constitution, and representatives of the two communities eventually joined forces to outmanoeuvre the TPLF within the ruling coalition to get Abiy, who is of mixed Oromo-Amharic parentage, appointed as prime minister in 2018.
Abiy moved swiftly. Top TPLF officials were sacked from key security posts, generals were arrested on graft charges, and changes were introduced to counter the Tigrayan dominance of the armed forces. Political prisoners were freed from secret prisons, exiled dissidents were welcomed home, cumbersome state enterprises were privatised, and restrictions on the media were eased.
Abiy’s peace deal with Eritrea, which won him the Nobel peace prize, isolated the TPLF. By this summer, simmering tensions had risen further. The TPLF refused to hand over wanted fugitives or join a new political party set up by Abiy to replace the old ruling coalition, and it went ahead with local elections in Tigray despite polls being postponed nationwide owing to the coronavirus pandemic.
Observers said the decision was a “provocation”, even if supporters claimed it was a necessary defence of federal rights. Abiy’s office says the prime minister has tried to work with the TPLF but has been rebuffed.
The spark that set light to the tinder came in early November with an alleged raid by TPLF units on federal military bases in Tigray, in which many national army officers were killed and substantial quantities of hardware was seized. Abiy launched his offensive immediately.
It has taken federal troops three weeks to fight their way to within artillery range of Mekelle. It is unclear whether Debretsion and the TPLF’s other leaders are now in the city. Analysts think it likely they have scattered, seeking remote hideouts from which they can run a lengthy and costly insurgency.
“They are looking at the long term and trying to make Tigray a burial ground for Abiy’s troops,” Woldemariam said. “It is very tragic. A lot of people will suffer.”
Ethiopia: Federal Police, ENDF accuse TPLF of “preparing to commit atrocities in Mekelle similar to that in Maikadra"
The Federal Police Commission said today that it has received “information from the public” that the TPLF was preparing to "commit atrocities in Mekelle city" similar to that in Maikadra town. The Commission also accused TPLF of “wearing the federal army uniform” to commit the crimes on residents of Mekelle who are “not Tigrayans”. It also says it has received information that the TPLF was preparing to disseminate information blaming its planned crimes on government forces and called for the public to not fall for TPLF’s “false propaganda.”
Similarly, the first statement with the same accusation was issued on November 24 by Major General Mohammed Tessema, Director General of Indoctrination bureau of the Ethiopian Federal Defense Forces (ENDF).
Briefing state media on current affairs, Maj. Gen. Mohammed said that the TPLF was planning to commit the crime by using the ENDF and the Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF) uniforms “it has manufactured in Almeda Textile Factory.”
Today’s statement by the Federal Police Commission was issued as Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced the start of final phase of law enforcement operation and called on "the people of Mekelle and its environs to disarm, stay at home and stay away from military targets and take all necessary precautions."
Ethiopia's Tigray conflict: 'Major military operations will be completed soon'
By France 24
In an exclusive interview with FRANCE 24, Ethiopian Finance Minister Ahmed Shide discussed the government's ongoing military offensive against the northern Tigray region and its capital Mekele. Shide said government forces had "liberated" significant areas of the region and that military operations "will be completed soon". He called the conflict a "law and order operation" and claimed that the aim was to "protect the Tigrayan people from the TPLF (Tigray People's Liberation Front) junta", which he accused of "committing different atrocities".
Fresh rocket attack from Ethiopia’s Tigray region targets Eritrea, say diplomats
By AFP
At least one rocket fired from Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region targeted neighbouring Eritrea Friday night, four regional diplomats told AFP, the second such attack since Ethiopia’s internal conflict broke out earlier this month.
“There was one rocket coming from Tigray that seems to have landed south of Asmara” (the Eritrean capital), one diplomat said, noting there was no immediate information available on casualties or damages.
A second diplomat said there were reports of another rocket striking a neighbourhood in Asmara, but this remained unconfirmed.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has for more than three weeks been waging a military campaign against the leadership of Tigray’s ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
He announced the operations November 4, saying they came in response to attacks orchestrated by the TPLF on federal military camps.
The TPLF has accused Ethiopia of enlisting Eritrean military support, a charge Ethiopia denies.
Two weeks ago Debretsion Gebremichael, the president of Tigray, claimed responsibility for rocket strikes targeting the airport in Asmara.
Those strikes exacerbated fears Ethiopia’s conflict could draw in the wider Horn of Africa region.
There was no immediate claim of responsibility from the TPLF for Friday’s strike, nor was there comment from Ethiopia or Eritrea.
After more than three weeks of fighting that has killed hundreds and sent tens of thousands of refugees fleeing into neighbouring Sudan, Abiy said this week the army was poised for a final offensive in the Tigrayan capital, Mekele, in the coming days.
Tigray has been under a communications blackout since military operations began, making claims of advances difficult to verify.
It was not immediately clear Friday night how close Ethiopian federal forces were to entering Mekele.
The international community has warned that an assault on Mekele, a city of half a million, could violate rules of war.
Earlier Friday Abiy, last year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner, met with envoys from the African Union to discuss the conflict.
But he has so far resisted calls for an immediate cessation of hostilities and talks with TPLF leaders.
Ethiopian military has taken 'full control' of Tigray capital, government says
By Reuters
Ethiopian troops have taken “full control” of the Tigray region’s capital Mekelle, the government said on Saturday evening, a major development in a three-week-old war that is sending shockwaves through the Horn of Africa.
“The federal government is now fully in control of the city of Mekelle,” Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said in a statement posted on his Twitter page.
He said police were searching for the leaders of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), who have been fighting federal forces in the northern region since Nov. 4.
“Federal police will now continue their task of apprehending TPLF criminals and bring them to the court of law,” said Abiy, who has called the government offensive a law and order operation.
There was no immediate comment from the TPLF.
Claims from all sides are difficult to verify since phone and internet links to the region have been down and access has been tightly controlled since fighting began on Nov. 4.
Authorities had said earlier that government forces were in the final stages of an offensive in the region and would take care to protect civilians in Mekelle, a city of 500,000 people.
Abiy said the army had secured the release of thousands of troops in the Northern Command, a military unit based in Tigray that was being held hostage by the TPLF.
The army chief of staff, Birhanu Jula, also announced that government forces had taken control of Mekelle, in a statement on the military’s official Facebook page.
State television said that federal forces were in full control of the city by 7 p.m.
Earlier on Saturday, a diplomat in direct contact with residents, and the leader of Tigrayan forces said federal forces had begun an offensive to capture Mekelle.
The government had given the TPLF an ultimatum that expired on Wednesday to lay down arms or face an assault on the city.
Thousands of people are believed to have died during the fighting this month and around 43,000 refugees have fled to neighbouring Sudan during the conflict.
Mekelle under command of the National Defense Forces pic.twitter.com/rj8GbK3ii8
— Abiy Ahmed Ali 🇪🇹 (@AbiyAhmedAli) November 28, 2020
I am pleased to share that we have completed and ceased the military operations in the #Tigray region.
— Abiy Ahmed Ali 🇪🇹 (@AbiyAhmedAli) November 28, 2020
Our focus now will be on rebuilding the region and providing humanitarian assistance while Federal Police apprehend the TPLF clique. #EthiopiaPrevailshttps://t.co/WrM2BAPCD6
Ethiopian military operation in Tigray is complete, prime minister says
By Reuters
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said on Saturday that military operations in the restive region of Tigray are complete and federal troops control the regional capital, a major development in a three-week-old war that has shaken the Horn of Africa.
Abiy’s government has been trying to quell a rebellion by a powerful ethnic faction that dominated the central government for decades before he came to power in 2018. Thousands of people are believed to have been killed, and nearly 44,000 have fled to Sudan, in a conflict that has called into question whether Abiy can hold together fractious ethnic groups in Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous country.
“I am pleased to share that we have completed and ceased the military operations in the Tigray region,” the prime minister said in a tweet. Less than an hour earlier, he said in a statement, “The federal government is now fully in control of the city of Mekelle”.
However the leader of Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), whose forces have been fighting Ethiopian troops, said the group was not giving up.
“Their brutality can only add (to) our resolve to fight these invaders to the last,” TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael told Reuters in a text message. Asked by Reuters if that meant his forces would continue fighting, he replied: “Certainly. This is about defending our right to self determination.”
There was no immediate response from the government.
In his statement, Abiy said federal police would continue searching for and detaining TPLF “criminals” and would bring them to court. The prime minister has called the offensive a law and order operation.
It was not clear if any TPLF leaders had surrendered. Debretsion said in another text message that their forces were withdrawing from around Mekelle.
Claims from all sides are difficult to verify since phone and internet links to Tigray have been down and access tightly controlled since the fighting began on Nov. 4.
Authorities had said earlier on Saturday that government forces were in the final stages of an offensive in the region and would take care to protect civilians in Mekelle, a city of 500,000 people.
Abiy said the army had secured the release of thousands of troops from the army’s Northern Command, which is based in Tigray, who he said had been held hostage by the TPLF.
Federal troops had also taken control of the airport, the regional administration office and other key facilities, Abiy said.
The government had given the TPLF an ultimatum that expired on Wednesday to lay down arms or face an assault on the city.
It was not clear if federal forces had seized weapons stocks on Saturday. The government said in the first week of the conflict that a target of its airstrikes was military hardware seized by Tigrayan forces.
Regional diplomats and experts have said that a rapid military victory might not signal the end of the conflict.
Two diplomats told Reuters it was likely that Tigrayan forces had withdrawn from Mekelle before the government’s push into the city, raising the prospect of a protracted guerrilla war.
The TPLF has a history of guerrilla resistance and used Tigray’s highland terrain and foreign borders to its advantage through years of armed struggle in the 1980s against a Marxist government.
The prime minister has so far rebuffed attempts at mediation. Abiy accuses Tigrayan leaders of starting the war by attacking federal troops at a base in Tigray. The TPLF says the attack was a pre-emptive strike.
By Prime Media
Farah Maalim is a Kenyan politician and former deputy speaker Kenyan National Assembly 2008 - 2013.
Mengistu Assefa talked to Mr. Maalim on the armed conflict in northern Ethiopia.
TPLF bragged earlier on that fighting is a way of life for them. What a joke!!!. They capitulated in a manner that will go down in military history as the mother of all defeats. They rode on the backs Eritrean fighters to defeat the DERG three decades ago. Now they can only run!!
— Farah Maalim EGH (@FarahMaalimM) November 28, 2020
Ethiopia's TPLF forces 'regrouping outside Tigray capital'
By Kalkidan Yibeltal | BBC Africa
Fighters of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) have been seen trying to re-group outside the city of Mekelle – just days after losing the state capital.
That’s according to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed – who just days earlier had declared the conflict over.
The head of the TPLF said his forces would fight on, indicating the conflict might not be completely over.
Prime Minister Abiy claims that the TPLF fighters who fled Mekelle are in his sight.
“We saw them from the situation room around Hagere Selam, a town 50 km [31 miles] away from the state capital," he told lawmakers.
He said the federal army didn’t attack because the retreating TPLF fighters had their families and "abducted soldiers" with them.
The head of the TPLF, Debretsion Gebremichael, denied he was in the area, but admitted that his troops were close by.
Earlier, he said the TPLF would fight on as long as the federal troops – which he called "invaders"– were in their land.
Hundreds are believed to have been killed from both sides since fighting began four weeks ago.
Mr Abiy said no civilians have been killed by his troops, but since the federal government has imposed a widespread communications shutdown, that claim is impossible to independently verify.
By France 24
Forces in Tigray say they have shot down an Ethiopian government plane and regained control of some towns. However, as FRANCE 24’s chief foreign editor Robert Parsons explains, the Tigray People's Liberation Front’s claims should be treated with a degree of caution.
Ethiopia sees war ending, EU complains of partisan aid access
By Reuters
Ethiopia said it had captured or killed most commanders of a rebellious northern force, while Tigray’s fugitive local leader countered on Friday that civilians were protesting against looting by occupying soldiers.
The following was translated from Russian using online software
On the meeting of Russian Ambassador A. Yarakhmedova with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Eritrea O. Saleh
By Russian Embassy in Eritrea | December 3, 2020
Russian Ambassador held a meeting with Eritrea Foreign Minister Osman Saleh. The focus was on further strengthening of Russian-Eritrean cooperation.
Separately A. Yarakhmedov and O. Saleh discussed the situation in neighboring Ethiopia in connection with the ongoing operation in the Tigray area by Ethiopian government forces to strengthen the country's territorial integrity. According to the Minister, the Eritrean side is not involved in this conflict, while they had to strengthen the security of the state border in the region so that the retreating forces of TPLF would not cross it. With the capture of Mekele, it is possible that the Ethiopian government has reached its objective, and the remaining two centers in Hager Selam and Abiy Addi are only a matter of time. The Eritrean also expressed his hope that Tigray authorities will make the right decision and surrender to government troops to prevent further causalities.
As part of the discussion on the topic of cooperation between the African horn countries, the Minister allowed the possibility, after the end of the conflict in Ethiopia, to intensify contacts and to develop closer cooperation between the countries of the region.
A. Yarakhmedov, for his part, thanked the Eritrean Minister for supporting various international initiatives of the Russian Federation.
In general, the meeting between A. Yarakhmedov and O. Saleh took place in a friendly atmosphere, which has recently been inherent in relations between the two countries.
Why Ethiopia's Tigray conflict won't turn into a protracted insurgency
By Dr. Mohammed Ibrahim Shire | TRTWorld
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front has executed a series of coercive steps to provoke a conflict at the local, national and regional level to force international powers to intervene.
On November 4, the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) launched coordinated attacks on the federal military's powerful Northern Command headquarters in Mekelle, prompting the Ethiopian government to launch a counter-offensive in TPLF-led Tigray.
Four weeks in, federal troops have “captured” TPLF’s last stronghold, the capital city, Mekelle and the TPLF vowed to fight on, leading many to paint a dire prognosis: that the conflict is transforming into a bloody and protracted war that could spiral into a regional conflagration.
A more in-depth look, however, paints an entirely different picture: that the TPLF is doing everything it can to avoid a long-drawn-out guerrilla insurgency, and instead, is actively lobbying for quick international intervention.
Provocation
A month before the November attack, the TPLF sent a flurry of letters to different foreign heads of state asserting that any dialogue with the federal government needs to be mediated by the international community or witness widespread insecurity.
Since then, the TPLF executed a series of coercive steps to provoke a conflict at the local, national and regional level with the aim to force international powers to intervene. The majority of these steps were rooted in the provocation strategy – an effective ploy often employed by insurgent groups to elicit a repressive overreaction.
First, it successfully provoked the federal government with a surprise attack against its largest military base, which forced the federal government to mount a military offensive against the TPLF. Two days into the conflict, the TPLF leadership sent a letter to the African Union (AU) chair highlighting that “political problems can’t be solved through military means” while imploring urgent international intervention. The AU decided not to intervene, and instead echoed a boilerplate line of “immediate ceasefire” to end the bloodshed.
Second, dismayed by the AU’s inaction and the seeming avoidance of any widespread attacks against Tigrayan civilians by federal forces, the TPLF decided to elicit an overreaction from the Amharas.
Nine days into the conflict, 600 unarmed Amharas were murdered in Mai-Kadra, allegedly by retreating TPLF forces. Violence against civilians is often portrayed as an antecedent of civil war, a cause or both, and eliciting a violent response from Amharas makes strategic sense since Amhara federal troops formed the backbone of the initial military operations. However, in the aftermath of the Mai-Kadra’s massacre, the town’s mayor assured the broader community that “Amhara[s] are not seeking revenge on the Tigrayans”.
More broadly, if this potential scenario played out the way the TPLF planned it, it could have forced an international intervention. Indeed, recognising that ethnic civil wars are usually centred on access to state power and resources, the international community usually prefers to intervene or mediate such conflicts with a preference for autonomy, power-sharing, or some combination of the two as evidenced, for instance, in Angola, Bosnia, and Sierra Leone.
Third, internationalised ethnic conflicts to a large extent, often require an internationalised solution as they tend to be characterised by a high level of violence. Indeed, some scholars find that international mediation tends to be accepted only in the most severe cases of civil wars. In internationalising the brewing conflict and subsequently heightening the conflict, the TPLF tried to draw in neighbouring Eritrea by firing multiple rockets that struck Eritrea’s capital Asmara. Eritrea, however, refused to get dragged in or even signal retaliatory attacks.
TPLF’s plea falls on deaf ears
The beleaguered TPLF has unsuccessfully garnered any support from the international community. Unsurprisingly, this can be attributed to several internal and external factors.
First, since the conflict started in November, the group pushed a near-mythical narrative of “battle-hardened” soldiers that have mastered the art of waging a guerrilla war. Drawing historical references to their successful rebellion against the Derg regime, the TPLF leadership boasted that Tigray is the “graveyard of dictators and aggressors”.
However, whilst the TPLF are battle-hardened and possess a wealth of experience in waging a successful guerrilla insurgency, the factors that made their rebellion against the Derg regime successful no longer exist. Federal forces have already secured the border with Sudan, cutting off the “TPLF from setting up bases there” whilst Eritrea mans any potential outlet to the Red Sea.
Second, the TPLF lacks international sympathy. The United States, UAE, China and other European countries have more or less sided with Ethiopia by only giving out standard diplomatic statements. Sudan was arguably the TPLF’s closest ally but the overthrow of Omar Bashir and the TPLF’s meteoric fall from grace within Ethiopia’s power structures has greatly limited the group’s influence in Khartoum.
Finally, most ethnic civil wars are decided by a military victory rather than negotiated agreements. As a result, attrition is important because the side’s mobilisation pools are separate and can be depleted. More significantly, since each side’s mobilisation base is inherently limited to members of its community, capturing enemy population centres effectively diminishes its mobilisation base. The capture of TPLF’s last stronghold in Mekelle has essentially sapped them from significant popular support – for the time being.
Whilst the TPLF has “vowed” to fight on after being ejected from their most important base in Mekelle, it is unlikely that the group’s rhetoric of a “long conflict” will match their current operational strategy. However, events can go the other way, giving TPLF the necessary impetus to change the tide against them and still precipitate an international intervention.
The group has made repeated claims that innocent Tigrayans are being systematically profiled and marginalised by the Ethiopian state. Already, there have been reports of non-aligned Tigrayans being fired, demoted or suspended for fear of switching loyalty to the TPLF. One pertinent example is the disarmament of 200 Tigrayans from the Ethiopian contingent of the African Union Mission to Somalia.
Moreover, over 40,000 Tigrayan civilians have fled the region since the crisis started. Expectedly, many fear that they will be unfairly targeted on account of their ethnic identity and if these worries are realised with government-tolerated ‘reprisal’ attacks against innocent Tigrayans, it can potentially incentivise resentful and fearful Tigrayans to accept the TPLF’s appeal for broader mobilisation.
Indeed, this level of repressive overreaction is what the TPLF was initially banking on in attracting international intervention and might prove equally useful as a recruitment strategy if it ever decides to switch to full-fledged guerrilla warfare.
U.S. thinks Eritrea has joined Ethiopian war, diplomats say
By Phil Stewart, David Lewis | Reuters
The United States believes Eritrean soldiers have crossed into Ethiopia to help Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government battle a rebellious northern force, despite denials from both nations, a U.S. government source and five regional diplomats said.
Abiy and Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki signed a peace pact ending two decades of hostilities in 2018 and now regard the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) as a mutual foe.
The U.S. assessment creates a potential policy predicament as Washington views Ethiopia as a major ally in the volatile Horn of Africa but accuses Eritrea of severe rights abuses.
Evidence of Eritrean involvement cited in the U.S. view of the month-long war includes satellite images, intercepted communications and anecdotal reports from Tigray region, five diplomats and a security source all briefed on the U.S. assessment told Reuters.
A U.S. government source confirmed Washington’s growing consensus, which has not previously been reported but matches accounts by some residents, refugees and TPLF leaders.
“There doesn’t appear to be a doubt anymore. It’s being discussed by U.S. officials on calls - that the Eritreans are in Tigray - but they aren’t saying it publicly,” the U.S. government source, who has been privy to the internal calls, told Reuters.
A senior diplomat from another country concurred, saying “thousands” of Eritrean soldiers were believed to be engaged.
The U.S. State Department did not confirm the U.S. conclusions, though a spokesman said it would view any proven Eritrean involvement with great concern and that its embassy in Asmara was urging restraint to officials.
Contacted by Reuters on Saturday, Eritrea’s Foreign Minister Osman Saleh Mohammed said: “We are not involved. It’s propaganda.”
Ethiopia has denied its old foe entered the conflict, though Abiy did say last week some government troops retreated into Eritrea early in the conflict and were given assistance. His spokeswoman told Reuters queries should be directed to Eritrea.
Claims by all sides are near-impossible to verify because most communications to Tigray are down, and the government tightly controls access.
Abiy won a Nobel Peace Prize last year for making peace with Eritrea, but the presence of Eritrean troops on Ethiopian soil would alarm Western allies. Ethiopia hosts the African Union, its security services work with Western allies, and its troops serve in peacekeeping missions in South Sudan and Somalia.
Eritrea has for years faced accusations of large scale rights abuses, including jailing opponents and forcing citizens into lengthy military or government service. It accuses Western powers of smear campaigns and luring Eritreans abroad, which they deny. [L8N2ID2YQ]
POLICY CONUNDRUM
Ethiopia-Eritrea ties were mostly icy under the TPLF-dominated government that ruled Ethiopia for nearly three decades in increasingly autocratic fashion before Abiy took office in 2018.
Cameron Hudson, a former CIA officer and director for African affairs at the National Security Council, said the U.S. government was divided about speaking publicly over Eritrea.
“That is, I think, due to a divide within the State Department between those seeking to maintain access to Abiy and those willing to call his own abuses,” said Hudson, now senior fellow at the Africa Center at the Atlantic Council think tank.
The TPLF claims to have killed and captured large numbers of Eritrean troops in the last month, but has provided no evidence. It has fired rockets into Eritrea at least four times, the U.S. State Department says.
Eritrean troops are believed to have entered Ethiopia in mid-November through three northern border towns: Zalambessa, Rama and Badme, two of the diplomats told Reuters.
The diplomatic sources and the U.S. government source did not have information on the numbers Washington believes have crossed, nor their weapons or role in the war.
Mesfin Hagos, a former Eritrean defence minister who broke with Isaias, said in an article for online publication African Arguments that the Eritreans sent in four mechanised divisions, seven infantry divisions and a commando brigade, citing sources in the defence ministry, opposition and personal contacts.
Some Ethiopian refugees in Sudan told Reuters they saw Eritrean soldiers in the north of Tigray, and that the border town of Humera had been hit last month by rocket or artillery fire from the Eritrean side of the border.
“People died, and they were scattered,” said a barber from Humera, adding that he saw about 40 bodies after one barrage and helped bury some of them.
Soldiers suspected to be Eritreans were also spotted in the regional capital Mekelle, said a resident and two diplomats in touch with inhabitants. Some were reported to be in Eritrean uniforms, one of the diplomats said. Others wore Ethiopian uniforms, but spoke Tigrinya with an Eritrean accent and drove trucks without license plates, the resident said.
The United Nations has expressed concern about reported violence against 96,000 Eritrean refugees in Tigray.
TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael told Reuters that Eritrean soldiers had raided two camps and abducted some residents but provided no evidence.
Eritrea’s Osman denied that, saying: “We are not repatriating Eritrean refugees. If Eritreans want to come back, they can.”
A U.N. security team trying to visit one of the camps on Sunday encountered uniformed Eritrean troops, two diplomatic sources told Reuters. The team - including two international staff - was denied access, shot at and detained, they said.
U.N. officials declined to comment. Eritrea did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
But Redwan Hussein, a spokesman for the Ethiopian government’s task force for the Tigray crisis, told reporters the U.N. team had broken through two checkpoints. “When they were about to break the third one they were shot at and detained,” he said.
Ethiopian officials have accused the TPLF of manufacturing fake Eritrean uniforms to bolster their claims and increase pressure on the government to accept international mediation.
The TPLF denies this.
